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WMS Market Balances
21/01/2015

January to November 2014 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to November 2014

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to November 2014 was 729 kt which follows a surplus of 569 kt recorded for the whole of 2013. Demand for primary aluminium in the first eleven months of 2014 was 46.12 million tonnes 2941 kt more than the same period in 2013. Production in January to November 2014 rose by 1806 kt compared with the first eleven months of 2013. Total reported stocks fell by a further 46 kt during November and at the end of the month were 6521 kt which equated to almost 51 days demand and compares with 7171 kt at the end of 2013. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 4556 kt at the end of November 2014 which was 1113 kt below the December 2013 total. Global producer stocks at the end of November 2014 were 1426 kt which was 291 kt above the previous year’s close. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to November 2014 rose by 4.1 per cent compared with January to November 2013. Chinese output was estimated at 21980 kt and this currently accounts for 48 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 8.5 per cent higher than 2013. Chinese net exports were 47.4 kt in November and net exports for the year to date were 270.8 kt.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.25 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 7.3 per cent. EU28 demand was 452 kt higher than the comparable 2013 total. Global demand rose by 6.8 per cent during January to November compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In November 2014, primary aluminium production was 4418.9 kt and consumption was 4533.2 kt.

Copper market records deficit in January to November 2014

The copper market recorded a deficit of 122 kt in January to November 2014 which follows a surplus of 283 kt in the whole of 2013. Reported stocks fell by 255 kt over the eleven months. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to November 2014 was 16.83 million tonnes which was 0.84 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013. Global refined production rose to 20.93 million tonnes up 7.6 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 953 kt) more than compensating for the 20.8 kt fall in Chilean output and 1.8 kt decrease in German production.

Global consumption for January to November 2014 was 21054 kt compared to 21040 kt for the whole of 2013. Chinese apparent consumption in January to November 2014 rose by 1345 kt to 10249 kt which represented just almost 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production grew by 3.7 per cent and demand was, at 3187 kt, 12.9 per cent above the January to November 2013 total.

In November 2014, refined copper production was 2018.0 kt and consumption was 2045.3 kt.

Lead market records small surplus in January to November 2014

The lead market was in surplus by 13.7 kt in January to November 2014 which follows a deficit of 94 kt recorded in the whole of 2013. Total stocks at the end of November were 24.5 kt lower than at the end of 2013. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to November 2014 from both primary and secondary sources was 9473kt which was 2.5 per cent lower than in the first eleven months of 2013. Global demand was 347 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3886 kt of lead in January to November 2014 which was 260 kt below the comparable period in 2013 and represented just over 41 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 53 kt.

In November 2014, refined lead production was 877.3 kt and consumption was 881.4 kt.



Zinc market records deficit in January to November 2014

The zinc market was in deficit by 232 kt during January to November 2014 which compares with a surplus of 94 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 339 kt during the first eleven months of the year. LME stocks fell by 25.2 kt in November and ended the month 258 kt lower than at the end of 2013. LME stocks represent 59 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 5.8 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 8.1 per cent compared with 2013. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 18.9 kt in October which brought the year to date figure to 552.5 kt, 10 kt lower than January to November 2013.

Global refined production rose by 2.4 per cent and consumption rose by 5.0 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 442.4 kt, 2.9 per cent below the equivalent total for January to November 2013.

World demand was 600 kt higher than the first eleven months of 2013. Chinese apparent demand was 5825 kt which is over 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In November 2014 slab zinc production was 1198.7 and consumption 1184.9 kt.

Nickel market records surplus in January to November 2014

The Nickel market was in surplus during January to November 2014 with production exceeding apparent demand by 169 kt. In the whole of 2013 the calculated surplus was 186.7 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of November were 153 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to November totalled 1745.7 kt and demand was 1577.1 kt.

Mine production during January to November was 1663.1 kt, 586 kt below the comparable 2013 total due largely to the assumed reduction in Indonesian output in response to the export ban. Japanese refinery output decreased by 1.4 kt compared with 2013 and apparent demand was 2.7 kt lower than in 2013.

World apparent demand was 63.9 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In November 2014, nickel smelter production was 156.6 kt and consumption was 137.6 kt.


Tin market records surplus in January to November 2014

The tin market recorded a surplus of 5.2 kt during January to November 2014 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 1.3 tonnes during November and ended the period 4.7 kt higher than December 2013.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was up by 28.4 kt, compared with January to November 2013. Apparent demand in China was 14 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to November 2014 was 345 kt which was 6.6 per cent above the comparable period of 2013. Japanese consumption was 25.2 kt which was 0.3 kt below the comparable total for 2013.

In November 2014, refined production was 35.9 kt and demand was 33.9 kt


Dated 21st January 2015
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics January 2015 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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