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January to December 2014 Metal Balances
18/02/2015

January to December 2014 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to December 2014

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to December 2014 was 849 kt which follows a surplus of 569 kt recorded for the whole of 2013. Demand for primary aluminium for the 2014 year was 50.55 million tonnes 3493 kt more than the whole of 2013. Production in January to December 2014 rose by 2075 kt compared with 2013. Total reported stocks fell by a further 123 kt during December and at the end of the month were 6397 kt which equated to just over 46 days demand and compares with 7171 kt at the end of 2013. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 4415 kt at the end of December 2014 which was 1163 kt below the December 2013 total. Global producer stocks at the end of December 2014 were 1408 kt which was 239 kt above the previous year’s close. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to December 2014 rose by 4.4 per cent compared with January to December 2013. Chinese output was estimated at 24382 kt and this currently accounts for 49 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 9.6 per cent higher than 2013. Chinese net exports were 42.7 kt in December and net exports for the full year were 313.4 kt.

Production in the EU28 fell by 1.2 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 7.1 per cent. EU28 demand was 542 kt higher than the comparable 2013 total. Global demand rose by 7.4 per cent during January to December compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In December 2014, primary aluminium production was 4559.7 kt and consumption was 4544.6 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to December 2014

The copper market recorded a surplus of 105 kt in January to December 2014 which follows a surplus of 283 kt in the whole of 2013. Reported stocks fell by 210 kt over the year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to December 2014 was 18.43 million tonnes which was 0.8 per cent higher than in the same period in 2013. Global refined production rose to 23.01 million tonnes up 7.9 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 1169 kt), India (up 145kt) and Zambia (up 110kt).

Global consumption for January to December 2014 was 22905 kt compared to 21040 kt for the whole of 2013. Chinese apparent consumption in January to December 2014 rose by 1522 kt to 11352 kt which represented just over 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production grew by 4.6 per cent and demand was, at 3279 kt, 8.0 per cent above the January to December 2013 total.

In December 2014, refined copper production was 2130.1 kt and consumption was 2033.4 kt.

Lead market records small surplus in January to December 2014

The lead market was in surplus by 30.5 kt in January to December 2014 which follows a deficit of 86 kt recorded in the whole of 2013. Total stocks at the end of December were 22.8 kt lower than at the end of 2013. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to December 2014 from both primary and secondary sources was 10307 kt which was 2.4 per cent lower than in the whole of 2013. Global demand was 371 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 4199 kt of lead in January to December 2014 which was 268 kt below the comparable period in 2013 and represented just under 41 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 80 kt.

In December 2014, refined lead production was 834.8 kt and consumption was 830.6 kt.



Zinc market records deficit in January to December 2014

The zinc market was in deficit by 262 kt during January to December 2014 which compares with a surplus of 95 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 340 kt during the whole of 2014. LME stocks rose by 17.8 kt in December and ended the month 240 kt lower than at the end of 2013. LME stocks represent 61 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 7.1 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 9.9 per cent compared with 2013. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 17.5 kt in December which brought the year to date figure to 569.9 kt, 54 kt lower than January to December 2013.

Global refined production rose by 3.2 per cent and consumption rose by 6.0 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 471.9 kt, 5.2 per cent below the equivalent total for January to December 2013.

World demand was 779 kt higher than the January to December 2013. Chinese apparent demand was 6420 kt which is over 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In December 2014 slab zinc production was 1168.1 and consumption 1148.2 kt.

Nickel market records surplus in January to December 2014

The Nickel market was in surplus during January to December 2014 with production exceeding apparent demand by 197 kt. In the whole of 2013 the calculated surplus was 186.7 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of December were 153 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to December totalled 1902.5 kt and demand was 1705.9 kt.

Mine production during January to December was 1811.7 kt, 669 kt below the comparable 2013 total due largely to the assumed reduction in Indonesian output in response to the export ban. Japanese refinery output decreased by 0.7 kt compared with 2013 and apparent demand was 2.0 kt lower than in 2013.

World apparent demand was 92.2 kt lower than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In December 2014, nickel smelter production was 157.8 kt and consumption was 131.2 kt.


Tin market records surplus in January to December 2014

The tin market recorded a surplus of 7.3 kt during January to December 2014 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 0.4 tonnes during December and ended the period 6.0 kt higher than December 2013.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was up by 33.8 kt, compared with January to December 2013. Apparent demand in China was 15 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to December 2014 was 379 kt which was 6.7 per cent above the comparable period of 2013. Japanese consumption was 27.1 kt which was 1.2 kt below the comparable total for 2013.

In December 2014, refined production was 36.0 kt and demand was 33.0 kt


Dated 18th February 2015
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics February 2015 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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