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Press Release August 2015
19/08/2015

January to June 2015 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market records deficit in January to June 2015

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to June 2015 was 380 kt which follows a deficit of 716 kt recorded for the whole of 2014. Demand for primary aluminium for January to June 2015 was 28.74 million tonnes 3962 kt more than the first six months of 2014. Production in January to June 2015 rose by 4084 kt compared with 2014. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 148 kt during June and at the end of the month were 4549 kt which equated to 33 days demand and compares with 5020 kt at the end of 2014. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 3888 kt at the end of June 2015 which was 558 kt below the December 2014 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to June 2015 rose by 16.8 per cent compared with the first six months of 2014. Chinese output was estimated at 15401 kt and this currently accounts for 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 34 per cent higher than 2014. Chinese net exports were 208 kt in January to June and net exports for the whole of 2014 were 313 kt.

Production in the EU28 rose by 0.6 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 3.1 per cent. EU28 demand was 100 kt lower than the comparable 2014 total. Global demand rose by 16 per cent during January to June compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In June 2015, primary aluminium production was 4898.1 kt and consumption was 4978.6 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to June 2015

The copper market recorded a surplus of 151 kt in January to June 2015 which follows a surplus of 295 kt in the whole of 2014. Reported stocks fell during both May and June but remained 93 kt higher than at the end of December 2014 No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to June 2015 was 9.45 million tonnes which was 3.8 per cent higher than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 11.25 million tonnes up 2.4 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 161 kt) and India (up 48 kt).

Global consumption for January to June 2015 was 11099 kt compared to 11231 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent consumption in January to June 2015 fell by 63 kt to 5337 kt which represented 48.1 per cent of global demand. EU28 production rose by 0.5 per cent and demand was, at 1783 kt, 6.8 per cent above the January to June 2014 total.

In June 2015, refined copper production was 1958.1 kt and consumption was 1873.0 kt.

Lead market records small surplus in January to June 2015

The lead market was in surplus by 17 kt in January to June 2015 which follows a surplus of 21.5 kt recorded in the whole of 2014. Total stocks at the end of June were 91.3 kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to June 2015 from both primary and secondary sources was 5009 kt which was 3.8 per cent lower than in the comparable months of 2014. Global demand was 235 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 2026 kt of lead in January to June 2015 which was 101 kt below the comparable period in 2014 and represented over 40 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 61 kt.

In June 2015, refined lead production was 874.6 kt and consumption was 872.1 kt.




Zinc market records surplus in January to June 2015

The zinc market was in surplus by 257 kt during January to June 2015 which compares with a deficit of 145 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 67 kt during the five month period. LME stocks fell by 15.9 kt in May but increased by 13.1 kt in June and ended the month 225 kt lower than at the end of 2014. LME stocks represent 41 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.3 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 14.2 per cent compared with 2014. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 19.8 kt in June which brought the year to date figure to 197.5 kt, 182 kt lower than January to June 2014.

Global refined production rose by 7.7 per cent and consumption rose by 1.1 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 243.1 kt, 3.3 per cent below the equivalent total for January to June 2014.

World demand was 74 kt higher than the January to June 2014. Chinese apparent demand was 3101 kt which is just under 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In June 2015 slab zinc production was 1215.2 and consumption 1198.8 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to June 2015

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to June 2015 with production exceeding apparent demand by 28 kt. In the whole of 2014 the calculated surplus was 196.1 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of June were 42 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to June totalled 791 kt and demand was 919 kt.

Mine production during January to June was 908.1 kt, 66.4 kt above the comparable 2014. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 10.8 kt compared with 2014 and apparent demand was 2.4 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 61 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In June 2015, nickel smelter/refinery production was 167.2 kt and consumption was 198.0 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to June 2015

The tin market recorded a deficit of 17.0 kt during January to June 2015 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose slightly during June but ended the period 4.2 kt lower than December 2014.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 27.3 kt, compared with January to June 2014. Production in Thailand declined from 9.9 kt in January to June 2014 to 4.9 kt in the comparable period in 2015. Apparent demand in China was 13.7 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to June 2014 was 181.9 kt which was 5.8 per cent below the comparable period of 2014. Japanese consumption was 13.5 kt which was 0.6 kt below the comparable total for 2014.

In June 2015, refined production was 29.1 kt and demand was 32.6 kt


Dated 19th August 2015
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics August 2015 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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