News and announcements

< go back

WBMS Press Release September 2015
23/09/2015

January to July 2015 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market records deficit in January to July 2015

The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to July 2015 was 487 kt which follows a deficit of 754 kt recorded for the whole of 2014. Demand for primary aluminium for January to July 2015 was 33.63 million tonnes 4595 kt more than the first seven months of 2014. Production in January to July 2015 rose by 4741 kt compared with 2014. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 106 kt during July and at the end of the month were 4444 kt which equated to 32 days demand and compares with 5020 kt at the end of 2014. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 3791 kt at the end of July 2015 which was 654 kt below the December 2014 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January to July 2015 rose by 15.8 per cent compared with the first seven months of 2014. Chinese output was estimated at 18332 kt and this currently accounts for 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 35 per cent higher than 2014. Chinese net exports were 224 kt in January to July and net exports for the whole of 2014 were 313 kt.

Production in the EU28 fell by 2.5 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 3.0 per cent. EU28 demand was 200 kt higher than the comparable 2014 total. Global demand rose by 15.8 per cent during January to July compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In July 2015, primary aluminium production was 4828.3 kt and consumption was 4854.1 kt.

Copper market records surplus in January to July 2015

The copper market recorded a surplus of 122 kt in January to July 2015 which follows a surplus of 298 kt in the whole of 2014. Reported stocks fell during both June and July but remained 47 kt higher than at the end of December 2014 No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile

World mine production in January to July 2015 was 11.05 million tonnes which was 3.6 per cent higher than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 13.2 million tonnes up 2.6 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 192 kt) and India (up 51 kt).

Global consumption for January to July 2015 was 13103 kt compared with 13069 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent consumption in January to July 2015 rose by 43 kt to 5337 kt which represented 47.9 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 0.5 per cent and demand was, at 1948 kt, 0.9 per cent below the January to July 2014 total.

In July 2015, refined copper production was 1929.9 kt and consumption was 1869.2 kt.

Lead market records small surplus in January to July 2015

The lead market was in surplus by 55 kt in January to July 2015 which follows a deficit of 10.4 kt recorded in the whole of 2014. Total stocks at the end of July were 57.3 kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to July 2015 from both primary and secondary sources was 5994 kt which was 1.97 per cent lower than in the comparable months of 2014. Global demand was 187 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 2401 kt of lead in January to July 2015 which was 67 kt below the comparable period in 2014 and represented over 40 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 64 kt.

In July 2015, refined lead production was 887.7 kt and consumption was 873.1 kt.




Zinc market records surplus in January to July 2015

The zinc market was in surplus by 219 kt during January to July 2015 which compares with a deficit of 142 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 128 kt during the seven month period. LME stocks fell by 32.8 kt in July and ended the month 258 kt lower than at the end of 2014. LME stocks represent 41 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand fell by 0.3 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 11.5 per cent compared with 2014. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 34.4 kt in July which brought the year to date figure to 231.9 kt, 189 kt lower than January to July 2014.

Global refined production rose by 6.7 per cent and consumption rose by 1.0 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 281.3 kt, 4.2 per cent below the equivalent total for January to July 2014.

World demand was 82 kt higher than the January to July 2014. Chinese apparent demand was 3635 kt which is just under 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In July 2015 slab zinc production was 1163.5 and consumption 1137.2 kt.

Nickel market records small deficit in January to July 2015

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to July 2015 with apparent demand exceeding production by 16 kt. In the whole of 2014 the calculated surplus was 241.8 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of July were 44 kt higher than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to July totalled 1096 kt and demand was 1112 kt.

Mine production during January to July was 1111 kt, 53 kt below the comparable 2014 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 7.2 kt compared with 2014 and apparent demand was 0.4 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 103 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In July 2015, nickel smelter/refinery production was 170.1 kt and consumption was 201.5 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to July 2015

The tin market recorded a deficit of 18.5 kt during January to July 2015 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell slightly during July and ended the period 2.1 kt lower than December 2014.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 26.5 kt, compared with January to July 2014. Production in Asia declined from 154.2 kt in January to July 2014 to 143.6 kt in the comparable period in 2015. Apparent demand in China was 11.0 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to July 2014 was 211.5 kt which was 4.8 per cent below the comparable period of 2014. Japanese consumption was 16.6 kt which was 0.1 kt below the comparable total for 2014.

In July 2015, refined production was 28.3 kt and demand was 31.0 kt


Dated 23rd September 2015
- ENDS-


The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics September 2015 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




Disclaimer

Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

Terms of Use

All data herein may be copied freely, duplicated and further distributed provided that WBMS is cited as the source.



About World Bureau of Metal Statistics:

The World Bureau of Metal Statistics is the data resource of first resort for anyone involved with the global metals industry. By outsourcing their research to WBMS, whether via regular publications or surveys tailored to their needs, organisations not only enjoy the benefit of reliable, first class data but also save significantly on cost and time. Through regular publications, available on subscription in print and electronic format, WBMS are able to keep companies and organisations throughout the world up to date on the production, consumption and trade in the major non-ferrous metals.

Launched in 1947, WBMS concentrated initially on the metals trade within the then British Empire. With the contraction of Empire, the organisation switched focus to the world stage and began collecting and collating data from a huge number of global sources. More than half a century later, its massive and regularly updated database forms the basis of printed and electronic publications aimed at the many and varied users of metal statistics. In particular, its monthly World Metal Statistics Bulletin represents the most comprehensive data available anywhere.

World Bureau of Metal Statistics
27A High Street
Ware
Herts
SG12 9BA
United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0) 1920 461274
Fax: +44 (0) 1920 464258