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WBMS Press Release January 2016
20/01/2015

January to November 2015 METALS BALANCES
Primary aluminium market records deficit in January to November 2015
The calculated market deficit for primary aluminium for January to November 2015 was 405 kt which follows a deficit of 589 kt recorded for the whole of 2014. Demand for primary aluminium for January to November 2015 was 53.13 million tonnes 3686 kt more than the first eleven months of 2014. Production in January to November 2015 rose by 3894 kt compared with 2014. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 139 kt during November and at the end of the month were 3821 kt which equated to 26 days demand and compares with 5020 kt at the end of 2014. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 3226 kt at the end of November 2015 which was 1219 kt below the December 2014 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.
Overall, global production rose in January to November 2015 by 8 per cent compared with the first eleven months of 2014. Chinese output was estimated at 29100 kt and this currently accounts for more than 55 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 15.5 per cent higher than 2014. Chinese net exports were 302 kt in January to November and net exports for the whole of 2014 were 313 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have soared from 3154 in January to November 2014 to 3857 in the first eleven months of 2015.
Production in the EU28 rose by 2.9 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 2.1 per cent. EU28 demand was 201 kt lower than the comparable 2014 total. Global demand rose by 7.5 per cent during January to November compared with the levels recorded one year previously.
In November 2015, primary aluminium production was 4741.2 kt and consumption was 4845.6 kt.
Copper market records surplus in January to November 2015
The copper market recorded a surplus of 248 kt in January to November 2015 which follows a surplus of 116 kt in the whole of 2014. Reported stocks fell during November and closed 156 kt higher than at the end of December 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.
World mine production in January to November 2015 was 17.57 million tonnes which was 4.1 per cent higher than in the same period in 2014. Global refined production rose to 21.12 million tonnes up 1.3 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 84 kt) and India (up 24 kt).
Global consumption for January to November 2015 was 20876 kt compared with 20930 kt for the same months of 2014. Chinese apparent consumption in January to November 2015 rose by 114 kt to 10362 kt which represented 49 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 0.8 per cent and demand was, at 3012 kt, 5.1 per cent below the January to November 2014 total.
In November 2015, refined copper production was 2072.8 kt and consumption was 2089.3 kt.
Lead market records surplus in January to November 2015
The lead market was in surplus by 88 kt in January to November 2015 which follows a deficit of 33.1 kt recorded in the whole of 2014. Total stocks at the end of November were 149 kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
World refined production during January to November 2015 from both primary and secondary sources was 9275 kt which was 7.4 per cent lower than in the comparable months of 2014. Global demand was 859 kt lower. Apparent consumption in China totalled 3522 kt of lead in January to November 2015 which was 776 kt below the comparable period in 2014 and represented over 38 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 64 kt.
In November 2015, refined lead production was 864.5 kt and consumption was 847.9 kt.
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Zinc market records surplus in January to November 2015
The zinc market was in surplus by 87 kt during January to November 2015 which compares with a deficit of 209 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 33 kt during the eleven month period. LME stocks fell by 27 kt in November and ended the month 148 kt lower than at the end of 2014. LME stocks represent 47 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 1.9 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China rose by 7.7 per cent compared with 2014. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 69.6 kt in November which brought the year to date figure to 448.9 kt, 104 kt lower than January to November 2014.
Global refined production rose by 4.1 per cent and consumption rose by 1.4 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 424.4 kt, 8.5 per cent below the equivalent total for January to November 2014.
World demand was 181 kt higher than for January to November 2014. Chinese apparent demand was 5958 kt which is over 46 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.
In November 2015 slab zinc production was 1183.7 and consumption 1216.8 kt.
Nickel market records small deficit in January to November 2015
The Nickel market was in deficit during January to November 2015 with apparent demand exceeding production by 19 kt. In the whole of 2014 the calculated surplus was 241.8 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of November were 9.7 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to November totalled 1765.8 kt and demand was 1785.1 kt.
Mine production during January to November was 1634.8 kt, 115 kt below the comparable 2014 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 12.1 kt compared with 2014 and apparent demand was 2.8 kt lower than in the previous year.
World apparent demand was 207 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes
In November 2015, nickel smelter/refinery production was 161.5 kt and consumption was 161.3 kt.
Tin market records deficit in January to November 2015
The tin market recorded a deficit of 11.1 kt during January to November 2015 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell slightly during November and ended the period 5.9 kt lower than December 2014.
Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was down by 22.7 kt, compared with January to November 2014. Production in Asia declined from 287 kt in January to November 2014 to 269 kt in the comparable period in 2015. Apparent demand in China was 8.0 per cent lower than the equivalent period of the previous year.
Global tin demand during January to November 2015 was 322.8 kt which was 3.7 per cent below the comparable period of 2014. Japanese consumption was 24.9 kt which was 0.1 kt below the comparable total for 2014.
In November 2015, refined production was 30.2 kt and demand was 30.4 kt
Dated 20th January 2016
- ENDS-
The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics January 2016 published today.
Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274
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Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.
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