News and announcements

< go back

WMS Market Balances
20/07/2016

January to May 2016 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to May 2016

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to May 2016 was a deficit of 408 kt which follows a deficit of 331 kt recorded for the whole of 2015. Demand for primary aluminium for January to May 2016 was 23.82 million tonnes 106 kt more than the first five months of 2015. Production in January to May 2016 fell by 232 kt compared with 2015. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 171 kt during May and at the end of the month were 3299 kt which equated to 21 days demand and compares with 3787 kt at the end of 2015. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 2801 kt at the end of May 2016 which was 432 kt below the December 2015 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production fell in January to May 2016 by 1.0 per cent compared with the first five months of 2015. Chinese output was estimated at 12616 kt and this currently accounts for almost 54 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 0.2 per cent lower than 2015. Chinese net exports were 177 kt in January to May and net exports for the whole of 2015 were 342 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have fallen from 1653 in January to May 2015 to 1531 in the first five months of 2016.

Production in the EU28 rose by 2.1 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 8.6 per cent. EU28 demand was 97 kt higher than the comparable 2015 total. Global demand rose by 0.5 per cent during January to May compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In May 2016, primary aluminium production was 4874.1 kt and consumption was 4851.3 kt.

Copper market records small deficit in January to May 2016

The copper market recorded a deficit of 48 kt in January to May 2016 which follows a surplus of 373 kt in the whole of 2015. Reported stocks fell during May and closed 37 kt lower than at the end of December 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to May 2016 was 8.14 million tonnes which was 4.8 per cent higher than in the same period in 2015. Global refined production rose to 9.66 million tonnes up 4.0 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 260 kt) and Chile (up 36 kt).

Global consumption for January to May 2016 was 9706 kt compared with 9136 kt for the same months of 2015. Chinese apparent consumption in January to May 2016 rose by 487 kt to 4841 kt compared to the same months of 2015 which represented 50 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 0.5 per cent and demand was 1465 kt, 3.8 per cent above the January to May 2015 total.

In May 2016, refined copper production was 1873.9 kt and consumption was 1928.8 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to May 2016

The lead market was in deficit by 27kt in January to May 2016 which follows a deficit of 4 kt recorded in the whole of 2015. Total stocks at the end of May were 16.6 kt higher than at the end of 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to May 2016 from both primary and secondary sources was 4222.5 kt which was 1.2 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2015. Global demand was 85 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 1590 kt of lead in January to May 2016 which was 12 kt below the comparable period in 2015 and represented over 37 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 19 kt for January to May 2016 compared to January to May 2015.

In May 2016, refined lead production was 850.3 kt and consumption was 843.6 kt.




Zinc market records deficit in January to May 2016

The zinc market was in deficit by 52 kt during January to May 2016 which compares with a surplus of 194 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks fell by 35 kt during the five month period. LME stocks fell by 21 kt in May and ended the month 82 kt lower than at the end of 2015. LME stocks represent 36 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 6.8 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 0.3 per cent compared with 2015. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 39 kt in May which brought the year to date figure to 259 kt, 82 kt higher than in January to May 2015.

Global refined production fell by 5.0 per cent and consumption fell by 0.8 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 203 kt, 5 per cent below the equivalent total for January to May 2015.

World demand was 44 kt lower than for January to May 2015. Chinese apparent demand was 2674 kt which is over 48 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In May 2016 slab zinc production was 1118.2 and consumption 1207.0 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to May 2016

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to May 2016 with apparent demand exceeding production by 42.6 kt. In the whole of 2015 the calculated surplus was 45.0 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of May were 39.8 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to May totalled 728 kt and demand was 770 kt.

Mine production during January to May was 801.1 kt, 82.1 kt below the comparable 2015 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 5.8 kt compared with 2015 and apparent demand was 3.0 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 130 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In May 2016, nickel smelter/refinery production was 155.9 kt and consumption was 169.8 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to May 2016

The tin market recorded a deficit of 2.0 kt during January to May 2016 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks rose by 2.9 kt during May and ended the period 3.0 kt higher than December 2015.

Global reported production of refined metal (excluding re-processed LME metal) was up by 13.3 kt, compared with January to May 2015. Production in Asia increased from 114.5 kt in January to May 2015 to 128.4 kt in the comparable period in 2016. Apparent demand in China was 13 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to May 2016 was 154.5 kt which was 4.6 per cent above the comparable period of 2015. Japanese consumption was 10.8 kt which was 0.5 kt below the comparable total for 2015.

In May 2016, refined production was 30.8 kt and demand was 29.6 kt


Dated 20th July 2016
- ENDS-






The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics July 2016 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




Disclaimer

Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

Terms of Use

All data herein may be copied freely, duplicated and further distributed provided that WBMS is cited as the source.



About World Bureau of Metal Statistics:

The World Bureau of Metal Statistics is the data resource of first resort for anyone involved with the global metals industry. By outsourcing their research to WBMS, whether via regular publications or surveys tailored to their needs, organisations not only enjoy the benefit of reliable, first class data but also save significantly on cost and time. Through regular publications, available on subscription in print and electronic format, WBMS are able to keep companies and organisations throughout the world up to date on the production, consumption and trade in the major non-ferrous metals.

Launched in 1947, WBMS concentrated initially on the metals trade within the then British Empire. With the contraction of Empire, the organisation switched focus to the world stage and began collecting and collating data from a huge number of global sources. More than half a century later, its massive and regularly updated database forms the basis of printed and electronic publications aimed at the many and varied users of metal statistics. In particular, its monthly World Metal Statistics Bulletin represents the most comprehensive data available anywhere.

World Bureau of Metal Statistics
27A High Street
Ware
Herts
SG12 9BA
United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0) 1920 461274
Fax: +44 (0) 1920 464258