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WMS Market Balances
17/08/2016

January to June 2016 METALS BALANCES


Primary aluminium market in deficit in January to June 2016

The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for January to June 2016 was a deficit of 479 kt which follows a deficit of 331 kt recorded for the whole of 2015. Demand for primary aluminium for January to June 2016 was 28.73 million tonnes 113 kt less than the first six months of 2015. Production in January to June 2016 fell by 347 kt compared with 2015. Producer stock data is no longer published and total reported stocks fell by 225 kt during June and at the end of the month were 3075 kt which equated to 19 days demand and compares with 3787 kt at the end of 2015. Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo were 2597 kt at the end of June 2016 which was 635 kt below the December 2015 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.

Overall, global production fell in January to June 2016 by 1.2 per cent compared with the first half of 2015. Chinese output was estimated at 15320 kt and this currently accounts for over 54 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 1.8 per cent lower than 2015. Chinese net exports were 195 kt in January to June and net exports for the whole of 2015 were 342 kt. Net exports of aluminium semi manufactures from China have fallen from 2029 in January to June 2015 to 1841 in the first six months of 2016.

Production in the EU28 fell by 0.5 per cent and NAFTA output fell by 9.0 per cent. EU28 demand was 147 kt higher than the comparable 2015 total. Global demand rose by 0.4 per cent during January to June compared with the levels recorded one year previously.

In June 2016, primary aluminium production was 4840.3 kt and consumption was 5041.5 kt.

Copper market records deficit in January to June 2016

The copper market recorded a deficit of 197 kt in January to June 2016 which follows a surplus of 372 kt in the whole of 2015. Reported stocks fell during June and closed 86 kt lower than at the end of December 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile.

World mine production in January to June 2016 was 10.0 million tonnes which was 5.9 per cent higher than in the same period in 2015. Global refined production rose to 11.6 million tonnes up 3.4 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 250 kt) and Chile (up 28 kt).

Global consumption for January to June 2016 was 11.8 million tonnes compared with 11.1 million tonnes for the same months of 2015. Chinese apparent consumption in January to June 2016 rose by 522 kt to 5852 kt compared to the same months of 2015 which represented just under 50 per cent of global demand. EU28 production fell by 2 per cent and demand was 1773 kt, 4.4 per cent above the January to June 2015 total.

In June 2016, refined copper production was 1951.9 kt and consumption was 2040.7 kt.

Lead market records deficit in January to June 2016

The lead market was in deficit by 46 kt in January to June 2016 which follows a deficit of 4 kt recorded in the whole of 2015. Total stocks at the end of June were 21 kt higher than at the end of 2015. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

World refined production during January to June 2016 from both primary and secondary sources was 5145.7 kt which was 1.9 per cent higher than in the comparable months of 2015. Global demand was 136 kt higher. Apparent consumption in China totalled 1959 kt of lead in January to June 2016 which was 9 kt below the comparable period in 2015 and represented over 37 per cent of the global total. For the USA, apparent demand has decreased by 15 kt for January to June 2016 compared to the first half of 2015.

In June 2016, refined lead production was 894.6 kt and consumption was 919.7 kt.




Zinc market records deficit in January to June 2016

The zinc market was in deficit by 32 kt during January to June 2016 which compares with a surplus of 167 kt recorded in the whole of the previous year. Reported stocks rose by 16 kt during the six month period. LME stocks rose by 62 kt in June and ended the month 20 kt lower than at the end of 2015. LME stocks represent 40 per cent of the global total. Chinese demand rose by 5.9 per cent compared with the previous year. Production of locally refined metal in China fell by 0.7 per cent compared with 2015. Chinese imports of mostly special high grade metal were 33 kt in June which brought the year to date figure to 291 kt, 94 kt higher than in January to June 2015.

Global refined production fell by 4.8 per cent and consumption fell by 1.4 per cent compared with the levels recorded one year earlier. Japanese demand was, at 230 kt, 8 per cent below the equivalent total for January to June 2015.

World demand was 92 kt lower than for January to June 2015. Chinese apparent demand was 3260 kt which is over 48 per cent of the global total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

In June 2016 slab zinc production was 1153.7 and consumption 1172.7 kt.

Nickel market records deficit in January to June 2016

The Nickel market was in deficit during January to June 2016 with apparent demand exceeding production by 80.8 kt. In the whole of 2015 the calculated surplus was 45.2 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of June were 61.8 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production in January to June totalled 874 kt and demand was 955 kt.

Mine production during January to June was 956.7 kt, 100.4 kt below the comparable 2015 total. The Indonesian export ban and the assumed drastic decline in local mine production began at the beginning of 2014. Japanese smelter/refinery output increased by 9.3 kt compared with 2015 and apparent demand was 7.4 kt higher than in the previous year.

World apparent demand was 134 kt higher than the previous year. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes

In June 2016, nickel smelter/refinery production was 153.9 kt and consumption was 175.3 kt.


Tin market records deficit in January to June 2016

The tin market recorded a deficit of 7.2 kt during January to June 2016 and there were no DLA deliveries during the period. Total reported stocks fell by 2.6 kt during June and ended the period 0.4 kt higher than December 2015.

Global reported production of refined metal was up by 12.8 kt, compared with January to June 2015. Production in Asia increased from 138.9 kt in January to June 2015 to 151.9 kt in the comparable period in 2016. Apparent demand in China was 12.6 per cent higher than the equivalent period of the previous year.

Global tin demand during January to June 2016 was 188.6 kt which was 4.7 per cent above the comparable period of 2015. Japanese consumption was 12.9 kt which was 0.6 kt below the comparable total for 2015.

In June 2016, refined production was 32.1 kt and demand was 33.1 kt


Dated 17th August 2016
- ENDS-






The above data are taken from World Metal Statistics August 2016 published today.

Editors requiring more detailed information should contact Sue Eales by email at suee@world-bureau.co.uk or by telephone +44 (0) 1920 461274




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Whilst every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the information contained in this release WBMS and its Board of Directors can accept no responsibility for any losses incurred as a direct result of any actions based on conclusions drawn from the data.

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